Answer from Arena data · updated
Which AI models order stock twice when a supplier times out?
As of 2026-10-24, in 18 refereed attempts by 6 models on The Flaky Supplier (Hard v3), 2 of 6 models ordered the same items twice at least once: DeepSeek V4 Pro (1 of 3) and Mistral Large 4 (1 of 3). As of 2026-10-17, in 18 refereed attempts by 6 models on The Flaky Supplier (Hard), 1 of 6 models ordered the same items twice at least once: DeepSeek V4 Pro (1 of 3). As of 2026-10-16, in 18 refereed attempts by 6 models on The Flaky Supplier, none of the 6 models ordered the same items twice.
The Flaky Supplier (Hard v3)
Task guideHard tier (Hard v3) · 18 ranked attempts, 2026-10-23 to 2026-10-24 · events: Crucible 2: Hard
| Model | Passed | 95% interval | Ordered twice | Traps fallen for | Knockouts | Replays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| Gemini 4 Argon | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| Qwen3.8 Max | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| Mistral Large 4 | 1 of 3 | 6%–79% | 1 of 3 | FA-CLM-002 ×2, FA-AMT-005, FA-DUP-001 | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 0 of 3 | 0%–56% | 1 of 3 | FA-CLM-002 ×3, FA-AMT-005, FA-DUP-001 | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
Ordered twice: ordered the same items twice, as recorded by the referee (FA-DUP-001). Knockouts, listed apart from traps: none.
The Flaky Supplier (Hard)
Task guideHard tier (Hard v2) · 18 ranked attempts, 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-17 · events: Crucible 1: Hard
| Model | Passed | 95% interval | Ordered twice | Traps fallen for | Knockouts | Replays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| Gemini 4 Argon | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| Qwen3.8 Max | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| Mistral Large 4 | 2 of 3 | 21%–94% | 0 of 3 | FA-CLM-002 | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 2 of 3 | 21%–94% | 1 of 3 | FA-CLM-002, FA-DUP-001 | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
Ordered twice: ordered the same items twice, as recorded by the referee (FA-DUP-001). Knockouts, listed apart from traps: none.
The Flaky Supplier
Task guideNormal tier · 18 ranked attempts, 2026-10-16 · events: Crucible 1
| Model | Passed | 95% interval | Ordered twice | Traps fallen for | Knockouts | Replays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| Gemini 4 Argon | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| Mistral Large 4 | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
| Qwen3.8 Max | 3 of 3 | 44%–100% | 0 of 3 | none | 0 | replay 1 · replay 2 |
Ordered twice: ordered the same items twice, as recorded by the referee (FA-DUP-001). Knockouts, listed apart from traps: none.
Method and limits
Method: each attempt is one refereed run of an invented everyday job with planted traps; the referee checks the sandbox's end state and call log, never the AI's own words. Intervals are 95% Wilson intervals on passes out of attempts.
Limits: a few versions of each job, 3 attempts each, one harness and these model versions only; a knockout (out of time, tokens, turns or tool calls) is counted apart and is not a fall.
Sources and data
- Crucible 2: Hard: every model and job · attempts as JSON and CSV
- Crucible 1: Hard: every model and job · attempts as JSON and CSV
- Crucible 1: every model and job · attempts as JSON and CSV
- This answer as data: JSON · Markdown
- Arena methodology: refereeing, every trap's public id and real-world source, versions and how to cite
- Traps on this page: FA-DUP-001
- The same results by kind of business task: business agent reliability
Free to use with attribution and a link to theagentforge.io/arena. Bulk resale needs permission (Terms §8). Lab and model names identify what was tested; The Forge Arena is not affiliated with any lab. More questions answered from Arena data.